California’s high‑speed rail project is years behind schedule, billions over early estimates, and facing a potential funding shortfall by late 2027—while China reports tens of thousands of miles of high‑speed rail already in service.
The money crunch
California High‑Speed Rail Inspector General Benjamin Belnap warned the project could run out of available funding by December 2027 unless new financing is secured, CBS News reported earlier in August. His office identified a roughly $9.5 billion funding gap over five years.
Amanda Millen, Deputy Inspector General for the California High‑Speed Rail Authority (CAHSR), told the Daily Caller News Foundation (DCNF): “The most likely outcome should the Authority not be able to secure financing in 2027 is that it will have to re‑prioritize its expenditures to focus on the 119‑mile Central Valley segment currently under construction and will have to limit expenditures on planned extensions into Merced and into Bakersfield.” She added that such a shift “will significantly delay completion of the 171‑mile, Merced‑to‑Bakersfield initial operating segment, exposing the project to increased inflationary costs.”
What’s built—and what isn’t
By February 2026, 80 miles of guideway and 58 structures were fully completed, with 119 miles under active construction, according to the source material. As of March, the project had spent roughly $15 billion, with about 2,000 feet of track installed and no high‑speed operations underway, the source reported.
CAHSR approved a contractor in June to install track, electrical systems, and other equipment needed to turn the Central Valley guideway into an operating railway. A CAHSR spokesperson told the DCNF that “construction is progressing every day, track installation begins later this year, and polling shows a strong majority of Californians want the state to keep going.”
Timelines slip, price tag swells
California voters approved the project in 2008 to connect San Francisco and Los Angeles, with early visions pointing to completion around 2020. The Authority’s 2026 budget plan put the cost of Phase 1 at roughly $126.2 billion—up from initial estimates of $33 billion to $45 billion. The Merced‑to‑Bakersfield starter segment alone is now projected at about $34.76 billion, roughly the low end of the original estimate for the entire system, according to the source.
The latest plan pushes Merced‑to‑Bakersfield service to 2033 and completion of the full Phase 1 to 2040, per the source. Separately, the inspector general’s latest review found service on the shorter segment could be delayed until September 2034.
New money, different buckets
Gov. Gavin Newsom announced another $2.7 billion for more than 150 transportation projects across the state while touting progress on high‑speed rail. None of that $2.7 billion was identified as bullet‑train funding, according to the source. The project separately secured what the source described as a $1 billion annual commitment through 2045 from a state “Cap‑and‑Invest” program.
The project’s finances were also hit when the Trump administration terminated roughly $4 billion in federal funding, according to the source. CAHSR sued over the decision but dropped the lawsuit in December 2025, saying the Trump administration was no longer a reliable federal partner. The agency has since signed an agreement with a consortium to evaluate private investment and public‑private partnerships for future expansion, the source reported.
Competing explanations—and a rebuttal
Energy analyst David Blackmon told the DCNF that U.S. private property rights complicate land acquisition for high‑speed rail compared with countries with fewer such protections. He argued California’s regulatory environment and political management worsened those challenges.
Stu Turley, CEO of Sandstone Group, told the DCNF that California’s regulatory approach fuels higher costs and pointed to what he described as smoother delivery of high‑speed rail projects overseas. He cited a company involved in California’s effort that, he said, built a similar train in Morocco under budget and ahead of schedule.
Responding to critics, a CAHSR spokesperson told the DCNF the project “has never been fully funded and must meet the same rigorous state and federal requirements that govern all major infrastructure in California,” adding: “We are delivering what voters approved in Proposition 1A—an electrified, statewide high‑speed rail system connecting San Francisco and Los Angeles through the fast‑growing Central Valley—in full compliance with CEQA, NEPA, and state law.”
China’s head start
China opened its first major modern high‑speed line, the Beijing–Tianjin Intercity Railway, in 2008—the same year California voters backed high‑speed rail. By the end of 2025, China had more than 50,000 kilometers (about 31,000 miles) of high‑speed rail in operation, according to Xinhua News Agency and the state‑owned China State Railway Group cited in the source.
The climate pitch
On April 22, 2026, the California High‑Speed Rail Authority posted that the system would run on 100% clean energy and projected annual savings of 500,000 metric tons of CO2e, with 1.4 billion vehicle miles and 14,000 air trips reduced. Those figures were presented in the Authority’s social media messaging and are projections for when service begins.
